June 09, 2009
Calibrating my crystal ball
As a futurist, I should make sure to check past predictions to see whether I'm biased (or just bad at predicting). A month ago I wrote Andart: Using Google to predict elections. Now it is time to see how well my guesstimates came out.
| Party | Prediction | Result | Difference |
| Social Democratic Party | 36.3% | 24.6% | 11.7 |
| Moderate Party | 14.1% | 18.8% | -6.7 |
| Green Party | 9.6% | 10.9% | -1.3 |
| Left Party | 9.3% | 5.6% | 3.7 |
| Liberal People's Party | 8.4% | 13.6% | -5.2 |
| Sweden Democrats | 7.7% | 3.3% | 4.4 |
| Christian Democrats | 5.0% | 4.7% | 0.3 |
| Pirate Party | 4.2% | 7.1% | -2.9 |
| Centre Party | 3.7% | 5.5% | -1.8 |
| June List | 0.9% | 3.6% | -2.7 |
| Feminist Initiativ | 0.4% | 2.2% | -1.8 |
I can't see any bias in any particular direction. I don't think I have any chance of beating the exit polls, but at least the numbers are in the right ballpark.
(On the Aumann agreement board at FHI we had a probability scale on whether the Pirate Party would get a seat; my final position was at 60% probability.)
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