April 29, 2011
I am confident in our overconfidence
Number of google hits of the type "I am X% certain".
There are many more people 99% certain of things than 90%, a clear sign of human overconfidence. Not to mention how many are falsely 100% certain of something. Empirical studies on overconfidence bias show that people are wrong about 20% of the time even about things they are 100% confident about.
Here is a logarithmic plot:
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