Threat Analysis Monthly Newsletter

The TAM News Letter is a monthly dissemination among interested sponsors seeking a common platform from which to discuss global security issues. The editors are adamant in their efforts to ensure the veracity of the information contained herein, yet these data may be subject to distortion beyond the editor’s control, or unannounced change. If you wish to reach the board of editors, please place an ad in the personals section of Die Zeit or China Daily, containing the numbers 890, 7000 and 43.

Current issue: June 2005

(Please note, any empty sections merely denotes that your subscription does not include this particular feature)

Newsbrief

Global

African

Eurasian

American

Oceania

Articles Section

Nova powers, an in-depth study

In recent years, the advent of novas into global society has caused much commotion and questions. This article concerns itself with the possible threats posed by exhibited nova powers. It also seeks to give some advice on how to counteract these.

1. Physical powers

These powers, frightening as they may seem, are actually the least threatening among known nova powers. The physical group includes extraordinary strength, endurance and quickness. Abilities to create shockwaves by pounding the ground or clapping hands are also among the physical powers.

    The current level of military technology can sufficiently handle any physical ability, given an approximate location of the nova. As regards police technology, its current state is slightly insufficient to deal with nova crime and other incidents of the physical type. Neutralization efforts must factor in considerable civilian casualties, along with widespread property damage. Incarceration efforts must necessarily be set to extremely high standards, something evidenced by The Johannesburg Affair. Execution without military aid may also pose problems.

2. Mental powers

These powers include augmented mental faculties such as vastly improved reasoning, logic and memory. Rapid reaction capabilities not physical in nature along with extreme linguistic proficiency also fall into this group. The threat posed by these may seem overwhelming at first, but they are actually not impossible to deal with. A highly intelligent adversary will often assume rationality, which is why hap-hazard tactics may beat him. The most insidious talent may be the linguistic one. Imagine the monitoring powers of the ultimate polyglot. He would be unencumbered by the massive support-structures employed by national intelligence agencies for translation, but operate at the same or greater efficiency within a limited spectrum. The only way to counter-act this power seems to be cryptography and opaque modes of communications. Economically speaking, however, the polyglot is a killer app.

    The current level of intelligence and memory-enhancing technology n arrows the gap considerably between the average human and the mental-powered nova. With enough processor-time and support staff, the gap may be narrowed most efficiently. The current state of translating technology is thoroughly unsatisfactory as compared to the versatility and initiative of a polyglot.



3. Psychic powers

Telepathic reading, control and assassination comes under this heading. Extrasensory perception, along with predictive and prejudicative powers also fit in. This heading covers a wide variety of powers, many of whom may seem uncorrelated. Some small correlation between these powers have been shown, however.

    The threat posed by telepaths is considerable. Critical information can be lost without any trace of a causal chain. Mental control, most likely exhibited in the Soho incident, can be individual or collective. Mass control can be a problem for civil authorities. In a military situation, control of key individuals is the main cause for concern. Extrasenory perception or clairvoyance may be used in any manner of situations. Espionage and reconnoiscance are the main applications that spring to mind.

    Counteracting telepathic powers is costly and difficult with current technology. Secret sharing algorithms will most likely see expanded use. The military command chain in strategic situations could be diversified and automated to a greater extent. This might lead to a greater vulnerability from conventional attacks, though. In civil society, there are no easy answers. The occurrence of telepathy can not be proven by recognized methods of outside observation, which leads to the conclusion that it may not be adjudicated by courts or police.

  Discrediting and political attacks may become more frequent. The widespread occurrence of sleaze allegations against elected Spanish officials has prompted speculation as to whether this might be a nova pursuing some unknown agenda. The panopticon contingency has been discussed within the Chinese security establishment, and would constitute a sharp departure from their previous doctrine. Without a highly centralized authoritarian system, the panopticon contingency has been ruled out by several prominent analysts.

4. Powers altering or circumventing laws of nature

Weather manipulation, gravity control and teleportation all sorts into this category. Certain tentative reports claim that probability alterations have been affected by novas, and if so, they belong under this heading. Less massive powers such as unpowered flight and atomic-scale manipulation of chemical or mineral components also come under here.

    The main concerns regarding this crop of powers, with one exception, are economical. A nova that allies herself with industrial interests, as seen in the case of Lady NASA, can provide a tremendous competitional advantage. The consequences for the status quo of the global distribution of wealth are considerable, and may cause many a violent distortion. An example of this is the biotech boom in Bangalore, that has severely drained venture capital from the biotech industries of Europe and America. The exception, stated above, is teleportation. Espionage, troop and munitions deployment and rapid transfer of key individuals are but a few of the applications imaginable. The civilian applications in crime and similar activities pale in comparison. Assassinations may be made with little or no risk. One comforting factor is that teleportation powers appear to be rare. Perhaps miseruptions are more common among these persons but whatever the reason, only two recognised teleporters exist. One appears to keep a low profile, while the other mainly engages in naive pursuits while not involved in the ENA nova community.

    The only way to effectively counteract these powers is to research equivalent technologies. In the case of teleportation, greater flexibility and mobility might help. If the attacker is unaware of the critical location in the greater part of any given moments, security should prove sufficient. Attacks upon civilian interests will be harder to deter. Again, the will to stop the attacker definitely must encompass acceptance of numerous civilian casualties.

5. Combined powers

The combination of the above-mentioned powers pose great questions. As the possible and observed range of combinations are so great as to effectively exclude any attempt at systematic analysis, I will content myself with a few general remarks.

    Physical / Mental combinations generally do not achieve great synergies. The strong and intelligent man would still hire people to do most of his dirty work. But imagine the polyglot with clairvoyance. He would be the most potent monitoring tool yet seen in the history of mankind. Take the Psychic with teleportation powers, able to teleport in, and wreak havoc, only to later disappear, as if she had never been there.

    Countermeasures against the combined use of nova powers rely heavily on certain factors. Chief among these is integration. If there is a separation between the different methods employed to keep different types of nova sat bay, they can be exploited by those that encompass both types. A second factor is revisability. If a nova penetrates your infrastructure, you do not wish to find that every security measure has been hard-wired into your systems, effectively creating a lock-in situation. Last, but not least, is distribution. If one part of your system falls, the rest should be able to keep operating and launch an appropriate response to the intrusion.

6. Conclusions

The list of powers discussed above is meant to be widely encompassing. The author is aware, however, that many of the powers exhibited by novas do not fit into any of the categories above. This is regrettable, but inevitable.

    Technology support is vital in counteracting nova threats. Without it, we would be consigned to social witch hunts that would be unacceptable in democratic societies, and uncontrollable in authoritarian ones. Countermeasures can be arranged in a tentative hierarchy. First, there is preventive measures, such as modifying our social infrastructure and decision-making hierarchies to make us less vulnerable to nova threats of different kinds. Second, there is pro-active measures such as evacuation or heightened security at vital locations. Thirdly, there is the full array of offensive and subduing measures that the modern society and its institutions can bring to bear. This includes everything from threats of social sanction to large scale police or military intervention. Lastly, there is the cauterizing option. In other words, the location where the nova is known to be is subjected to massive area effect devastation. This may be through nuclear or fuel-air explosives, or by some other method. No life, down to the bacterial level, should be able to survive within the designated kill zone. The political will to effect this final contingency will most likely come from a frustration at the ineffectiveness of gradually escalating countermeasures, rather than a well-considered response to a clearly defined threat.

Announcement section

End of file