predictions

Checking my predictions for 2016

Last year I made a number of predictions for 2016 to see how well calibrated I am. Here is the results:

Prediction Correct?
No nuclear war: 99% 1
No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 95% 1 (Orlando: 50)
I will be involved in at least one published/accepted-to-publish research paper by the end of 2015: 95% 1
Vesuvius will not have a major eruption: 95% 1
I will remain at my same job through the end of 2015: 90% 1
MAX IV in Lund delivers X-rays: 90% 1
Andart II will remain active: 90% 1
Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state: 90% 1
US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 90% 1
New Zeeland has not decided to change current flag at end of year: 85% 1
No multi-country Ebola outbreak: 80% 1
Assad will remain President of Syria: 80% 1
ISIS will control less territory than it does right now: 80% 1
North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 80% 1
The US NSABB will allow gain of function funding: 80% 1 [Their report suggests review before funding, currently it is up to the White House to respond. ]

 
US presidential election: democratic win: 75% 0
A general election will be held in Spain: 75% 1
Syria’s civil war will not end this year: 75% 1
There will be no NEO with Torino Scale >0 on 31 Dec 2016: 75% 0 (2016 XP23 showed up on the scale according to JPL, but NEODyS Risk List gives it a zero.)
The Atlantic basin ACE will be below 96.2: 70% 0 (ACE estimate on Jan 1 is 132)
Sweden does not get a seat on the UN Security Council: 70% 0
Bitcoin will end the year higher than $200: 70% 1
Another major eurozone crisis: 70% 0
Brent crude oil will end the year lower than $60 a barrel: 70% 1
I will actually apply for a UK citizenship: 65% 0
UK referendum votes to stay in EU: 65% 0
China will have a GDP growth above 5%: 65% 1
Evidence for supersymmetry: 60% 0
UK larger GDP than France: 60% 1 (although it is a close call; estimates put France at 2421.68 and UK at 2848.76 – quite possibly this might change)
France GDP growth rate less than 2%: 60% 1
I will have made significant progress (4+ chapters) on my book: 55% 0
Iran nuclear deal holding: 50% 1
Apple buys Tesla: 50% 0
The Nikkei index ends up above 20,000: 50% 0 (nearly; the Dec 20 max was 19,494)

Overall, my Brier score is 0.1521. Which doesn’t feel too bad.

Plotting the results (where I bin together things in [0.5,0.55], [0.5,0.65], [0.7 0.75], [0.8,0.85], [0.9,0.99] bins) give this calibration plot:

Plot of average correctness of my predictions for 2016 as a function of confidence.
Plot of average correctness of my predictions for 2016 as a function of confidence (blue). Red line is perfect calibration.

Overall, I did great on my “sure bets” and fairly weakly on my less certain bets. I did not have enough questions to make this very statistically solid (coming up with good prediction questions is hard!), but the overall shape suggests that I am a bit overconfident, which is not surprising.

Time to come up with good 2017 prediction questions.

Predictions for 2016

The ever readable Slate Star Codex has a post about checking how accurate the predictions for 2015 were; overall Scott Alexander seems pretty well calibrated. Being a born follower I decided to make a bunch of predictions to check my calibration in a year’s time.

Here is my list of predictions, with my confidence (some predictions obviously stolen):

  • No nuclear war: 99%
  • No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 95%
  • I will be involved in at least one published/accepted-to-publish research paper by the end of 2015: 95%
  • Vesuvius will not have a major eruption: 95%
  • I will remain at my same job through the end of 2015: 90%
  • MAX IV in Lund delivers X-rays: 90%
  • Andart II will remain active: 90%
  • Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state: 90%
  • US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 90%
  • New Zeeland has not decided to change current flag at end of year: 85%
  • No multi-country Ebola outbreak: 80%
  • Assad will remain President of Syria: 80%
  • ISIS will control less territory than it does right now: 80%
  • North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 80%
  • The US NSABB will allow gain of function funding: 80%
  • US presidential election: democratic win: 75%
  • A general election will be held in Spain: 75%
  • Syria’s civil war will not end this year: 75%
  • There will be no NEO with Torino Scale >0 on 31 Dec 2016: 75%
  • The Atlantic basin ACE will be below 96.2: 70%
  • Sweden does not get a seat on the UN Security Council: 70%
  • Bitcoin will end the year higher than $200: 70%
  • Another major eurozone crisis: 70%
  • Brent crude oil will end the year lower than $60 a barrel: 70%
  • I will actually apply for a UK citizenship: 65%
  • UK referendum votes to stay in EU: 65%
  • China will have a GDP growth above 5%: 65%
  • Evidence for supersymmetry: 60%
  • UK larger GDP than France: 60%
  • France GDP growth rate less than 2%: 60%
  • I will have made significant progress (4+ chapters) on my book: 55%
  • Iran nuclear deal holding: 50%
  • Apple buys Tesla: 50%
  • The Nikkei index ends up above 20,000: 50%

The point is to have enough that we can see how my calibration works.

Looking for topics leads to amusing finds like the predictions of Nostradamus for 2015. Given that language barriers remain, the dead remain dead, lifespans are less than 200, there has not been a Big One in western US nor has Vesuvius erupted, and taxes still remain, I think we can conclude he was wrong or the ability to interpret him accurately is near zero. Which of course makes his quatrains equally useless.